Experts Expect U.S. Job Market to Stay Stable Despite Slower Hiring

The U.S. labor market is expected to remain relatively stable through the second half of 2026, according to forecasts from several economic research firms. While hiring activity has slowed compared with earlier months, economists believe unemployment is likely to stay near current levels if broader economic conditions remain steady.

The unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in May, remaining low by historical standards. However, hiring has been less active, making it more difficult for job seekers to find new opportunities even as layoffs remain limited.

Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate employers could add around 60,000 jobs per month during the second half of the year. They believe this pace would still be enough to keep the unemployment rate largely unchanged.

Other forecasts present similar expectations. Fannie Mae projects unemployment to remain at 4.3% through the end of 2026 and into 2027, while Wells Fargo expects monthly job gains of roughly 95,000, with unemployment also holding steady.

Some analysts, however, warn that the labor market may be less resilient than headline numbers suggest. Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts unemployment could rise to about 4.75% by year-end, citing weaker hiring plans among small businesses affected by tariffs. S&P Global also expects unemployment to increase to 4.6%, noting that recent employment gains have been concentrated in only a few sectors.

A more optimistic outlook comes from J.P. Morgan, which expects the unemployment rate to decline to 4.1% by the end of 2026 and reach 4.0% in 2027, supported by what it describes as a fundamentally solid labor market.